It’s going to rain all day in Louisville, KY. The dresses and the hats will still be bright and the juleps will bring joy to the crowd, but the backdrop of thunderclouds and mud is so disappointing. It’s hardly unusual, though. The First Saturday in May is always as fickle as the odds and I’ve worn coats and winter hats to the festivities several times.
After pouring over the statistics, pedigrees, colors of the horses, examining the trainers and jockeys carefully, and listening to plenty of podcasts giving expert picks, I have come to the startling conclusion that any of these horses could win. I know, I know it’s always like that, but with a completely washed out track (especially by race 12) the 3-year-old contenders’ history has not prepared them for deep mud.
So, it’s a horse race…a gamble. I’ve been consulting with my daughter and son-in-law, and though my girl-child is a born procrastinator and won’t make her mind up until 20 minutes to post, my son-in-law is more solid in his picks. His original choice of Rodriguez at the top had to change when said horse was scratched, but his final choices are #8, Journalism, #9 Burnham Square, #14 Tiztastic, and #17 Sandman. Those are some good picks.
I have figured out the way to Win this year and am so excited to present to you the JoJo Derby Wagering Scheme! I texted my grandies, asking them to pick a number between 1 and 20, not 10 (scratched), Their responses are brilliant and just as good as I could have deduced with all my study. Here we go:
Emma picked #8 – turns out that’s Journalism, the favorite, something like 6-5 odds
Nova picked #9 – Burnham Square, a fella I really like, going off at 16-1
Eliza picked #3 – Final Gambit, a Beautiful Gray horse, currently 15-1
Samantha picked #13 – Publisher, another good one, 30-1 odds
We’ve covered a lot of the field with those choices, but I want to point out #18 Sovereignty at 6-1 looks good and the #21, Baeva, just got into the race after Rodriguez was scratched and he could be The One at 18-1. Oh, and Baffert has one horse left in the race, Citizen Bull 13-1, a fine contender who pulled the unfortunate post position of #1, but on a day like today, anything is possible.
Okay, so it still is a lot of “Bet the Whole Field” strategy, but I’m really only going to wager on the Grandie’s Picks and maybe just one other…maybe…just one..
We’re staying home again this year — too cold for me to head out to Ellis Park’s Party, but I have my cute little outfit picked, complete with matching fascinator. We’re having fried chicken, potato salad, and pecan pie. I look forward to the pie as much as I do the race!
The Muddy Mess will be covered by Peacock and NBC, probably some other sports channels. I think they’re showing the whole race card over on Peacock, so you can make bets on how deep the mud will be by race #12. I stand by my “rain date” request.
And the Bourbon of the Day? Woodford Reserve.
Peace
The News from Sonnystone Acres 