Tag: Kentucky Derby

Posted in ......And they're Off!!!, Kentucky Derby

Run for the Roses #151

Posted on by Jo Mayne Casey

It’s going to rain all day in Louisville, KY. The dresses and the hats will still be bright and the juleps will bring joy to the crowd, but the backdrop of thunderclouds and mud is so disappointing. It’s hardly unusual, though. The First Saturday in May is always as fickle as the odds and I’ve worn coats and winter hats to the festivities several times.

After pouring over the statistics, pedigrees, colors of the horses, examining the trainers and jockeys carefully, and listening to plenty of podcasts giving expert picks, I have come to the startling conclusion that any of these horses could win. I know, I know it’s always like that, but with a completely washed out track (especially by race 12) the 3-year-old contenders’ history has not prepared them for deep mud.

So, it’s a horse race…a gamble. I’ve been consulting with my daughter and son-in-law, and though my girl-child is a born procrastinator and won’t make her mind up until 20 minutes to post, my son-in-law is more solid in his picks. His original choice of Rodriguez at the top had to change when said horse was scratched, but his final choices are #8, Journalism, #9 Burnham Square, #14 Tiztastic, and #17 Sandman. Those are some good picks.

I have figured out the way to Win this year and am so excited to present to you the JoJo Derby Wagering Scheme! I texted my grandies, asking them to pick a number between 1 and 20, not 10 (scratched), Their responses are brilliant and just as good as I could have deduced with all my study. Here we go:

Emma picked #8 – turns out that’s Journalism, the favorite, something like 6-5 odds

Nova picked #9 – Burnham Square, a fella I really like, going off at 16-1

Eliza picked #3 – Final Gambit, a Beautiful Gray horse, currently 15-1

Samantha picked #13 – Publisher, another good one, 30-1 odds

We’ve covered a lot of the field with those choices, but I want to point out #18 Sovereignty at 6-1 looks good and the #21, Baeva, just got into the race after Rodriguez was scratched and he could be The One at 18-1. Oh, and Baffert has one horse left in the race, Citizen Bull 13-1, a fine contender who pulled the unfortunate post position of #1, but on a day like today, anything is possible.

Okay, so it still is a lot of “Bet the Whole Field” strategy, but I’m really only going to wager on the Grandie’s Picks and maybe just one other…maybe…just one..

We’re staying home again this year — too cold for me to head out to Ellis Park’s Party, but I have my cute little outfit picked, complete with matching fascinator. We’re having fried chicken, potato salad, and pecan pie. I look forward to the pie as much as I do the race!

The Muddy Mess will be covered by Peacock and NBC, probably some other sports channels. I think they’re showing the whole race card over on Peacock, so you can make bets on how deep the mud will be by race #12. I stand by my “rain date” request.

And the Bourbon of the Day? Woodford Reserve.

Peace

Posted in Run for the Roses

Hedging my bets…

Posted on by Jo Mayne Casey

Before the internet gave me a vast library of information on each horse in the Kentucky Derby, I was happy to believe in luck and was often lucky. I picked the horse that I wanted to win, despite any odds, basing it on the backstory, or how pretty it was, or how colorful the jockey was. Of course, those were the years that we didn’t do any cash wagering, so all I won was bragging rights and that little oomph that you feel when you are right.

There were several years when we’d dress up and go out to Ellis Park for their annual party and that’s when I first began actually putting money on my hunches. I’d usually bet one favorite and one longshot, never more than $2 each, and both to show. I wasn’t there to make money, honey, it was a party.

After working at our local horse racing track, I began to appreciate that some horses are just faster than others, and took a deep dive into pedigrees, pace, brisnet scores and trainers. etc…all very important for a winner, but…

Despite all the stats, the points and the jockey, it really comes down to luck – for both the bettor and the betee. Odds on a horse race are set by how many people are betting on the horse to win. That actually gives you no factual clue as to what his chances are. For the person placing the wager, there is an emotional component that does not factor into the outcome of the race at all. But the enthusiasm for the horse is crucial to the Derby Experience.

My research tells me that there are several horses that could win this race, about 20 of them, so in recent years I’ve struggled to Decide who to choose, resulting in hedging my bets with about a million show bets — trust me, folks, it doesn’t work to bet the whole field.

My approach this year is to go with my gut, as soon as my gut speaks. I’ve listened to the morning calls, watched videos on dang near every horse, and studied up on race results, I’ve chosen one short odd, and one longshot that appeal to me. Now I just have to remain resolute.

Sierra Leone is currently at 3-1 and I like him. He’s pretty and he’s won some big races. He was trained by Chad Brown, and Tyler Gafflione will be his jockey as he starts out from the #2 gate. That gate position bothers me, but I’m not going to keep vacillating — I like this horse.

My longshot is Encino, currently 20-1, and he’s a plucky guy who almost didn’t make the cut for the Run. Trained by Brad Cox, he has two stablemates in the race who are more highly regarded than him, but I like him. He’s in a good gate position — #9 — and I feel good about his abilities, despite his odds.

Okay, I reserve the right to change my mind and bet a couple more horses — 88-year-old Wayne Lukas has entered a contender, Just Steel, so there’s a nice emotional draw…

This year’s Derby menu is pulled pork sandwiches, potato salad, and pecan pie. Bourbon of the Day is Maker’s Mark; there may be juleps involved, but on the rocks is fine with me. We might even have some guests this year.

It’s currently forecast that the day will be pretty, the track fast – some of that luck stuff that really affects how well the horses run. I see it as a sign that we’re gonna have a good time.

Peace

Posted in Kentucky Derby 147

Overthinking the Derby 2021

Posted on by Jo Mayne Casey

It’s the First Saturday in May and a Beautiful Day for the 147th Run for the Roses in the 12th race at Churchill Downs. Unless there are changes this morning, there will be 19 horses running in the Kentucky Derby this year. How do we pick a winner??

As Paul Simon wrote: “The problem is all inside your head, she said to me. The answer is easy if you take it logically…” there must be 50 ways to bet the Derby…

Logic–Ha! You can bet by choosing your favorite horse name, jockey, owner, trainer, silk colors, horse color… You can pick by pace, speed, past performances, or take a tip from one of the many “professionals”.

You could choose by the Odds, but I’m ranting about those… In fact, I’m put out that there are so many horses in this race at all, something I moan about every year. This year really underscores my complaint: Of the 19 horses running, Nine have odds greater than 40-1, Three have odds greater than 30-1, and 4 have odds greater than 10-1. That leaves you with Three — just 3 — horses and one of those, Essential Quality, has a morning line of 6-5 (that ain’t no odds at all).

Essential Quality, a beautiful gray horse who is unbeaten in his Five starts during the Prep Races, does look like a Super Horse. Sired by Tapit and out of Delightful Quality, he is bred and owned by Godolphin, trained by Brad Cox and jockey Luis Saez sits aboard. He’s in the #14 post position and certainly appears to be sure bet– but nothing is sure in this race despite those odds.

The other two horses with odds below 10-1 are Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World. I latched on to Hot Rod because of his name, reminding me of my cousin-in-law, Charlie Pierson. Who wouldn’t bet a horse named after him, and with odds 7-1? Rock your World is fast and will set the pace, but can he go the distance? I dunno, because he doesn’t have a whole lot of experience.

The four horses with odds between 10 and 20 to 1 are more my style: Known Agenda, Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon, and Highly Motivated. I’m angsting over All of them. As a true over-thinker, I’ve followed the Derby Prep Races which started in January. Points are assigned to each win, place, or show of those races and these four have shown themselves to be strong contenders.

Of the also-rans, only Soup and Sandwich appeals to me. He is a light gray with Spunk and I love his name.

I place my bets online with Twin Spires and they sent me a $10-money-back offer. If I make a $10 Win bet and that horse comes in second or third, I will get my money back; that sort of makes up for the short odds on Essential Quality, so I’ll wager $10 that he will win.

Medina Spirit, a Baffert horse, is a sure bet for me across the board, as is the afore-mentioned Hot Rod Charlie. For my show and combo bets, it’s between Known Agenda, Midnight Bourbon, Highly Motivated, and Soup and Sandwich.

The odds are changing even as we speak. I’m still befuddled and bewildered, so I’ll turn to my Ace in the Hole: Let the grandies pick…

Good Luck!