Before the internet gave me a vast library of information on each horse in the Kentucky Derby, I was happy to believe in luck and was often lucky. I picked the horse that I wanted to win, despite any odds, basing it on the backstory, or how pretty it was, or how colorful the jockey was. Of course, those were the years that we didn’t do any cash wagering, so all I won was bragging rights and that little oomph that you feel when you are right.
There were several years when we’d dress up and go out to Ellis Park for their annual party and that’s when I first began actually putting money on my hunches. I’d usually bet one favorite and one longshot, never more than $2 each, and both to show. I wasn’t there to make money, honey, it was a party.
After working at our local horse racing track, I began to appreciate that some horses are just faster than others, and took a deep dive into pedigrees, pace, brisnet scores and trainers. etc…all very important for a winner, but…
Despite all the stats, the points and the jockey, it really comes down to luck – for both the bettor and the betee. Odds on a horse race are set by how many people are betting on the horse to win. That actually gives you no factual clue as to what his chances are. For the person placing the wager, there is an emotional component that does not factor into the outcome of the race at all. But the enthusiasm for the horse is crucial to the Derby Experience.
My research tells me that there are several horses that could win this race, about 20 of them, so in recent years I’ve struggled to Decide who to choose, resulting in hedging my bets with about a million show bets — trust me, folks, it doesn’t work to bet the whole field.
My approach this year is to go with my gut, as soon as my gut speaks. I’ve listened to the morning calls, watched videos on dang near every horse, and studied up on race results, I’ve chosen one short odd, and one longshot that appeal to me. Now I just have to remain resolute.
Sierra Leone is currently at 3-1 and I like him. He’s pretty and he’s won some big races. He was trained by Chad Brown, and Tyler Gafflione will be his jockey as he starts out from the #2 gate. That gate position bothers me, but I’m not going to keep vacillating — I like this horse.
My longshot is Encino, currently 20-1, and he’s a plucky guy who almost didn’t make the cut for the Run. Trained by Brad Cox, he has two stablemates in the race who are more highly regarded than him, but I like him. He’s in a good gate position — #9 — and I feel good about his abilities, despite his odds.
Okay, I reserve the right to change my mind and bet a couple more horses — 88-year-old Wayne Lukas has entered a contender, Just Steel, so there’s a nice emotional draw…
This year’s Derby menu is pulled pork sandwiches, potato salad, and pecan pie. Bourbon of the Day is Maker’s Mark; there may be juleps involved, but on the rocks is fine with me. We might even have some guests this year.
It’s currently forecast that the day will be pretty, the track fast – some of that luck stuff that really affects how well the horses run. I see it as a sign that we’re gonna have a good time.
Peace
The News from Sonnystone Acres 